Calibration
The calibrated posterior
Eight parameters, fit by Bayesian MCMC against the clean-decade geodetic mass balance, 22 stakes, and 9 trusted branch snowlines. The corner plot is the joint posterior — every pairwise trade-off and every marginal, drawn from 500 thinned draws. Uncertainty is the whole point here, not a footnote.
Thickness track
Joint posterior · Farinotti track
Priors → posteriors · what the data taught us
For each parameter, the prior (grey, ±1σ around μ) above the posterior (ink, 5–95% around the median), each on its own bounds. A posterior narrower than or shifted off the prior means the observations were informative; an overlapping band means the fit leaned on the prior — an honest thing to be able to see.
The hard part · σ_extra and the sampler