Dixon runoff to 2100
Scrub the scenario (top bar), warming transmission, thickness track, and climate model to see the ensemble runoff and when peak water lands. Uncertainty is the paired-posterior 5–95% band across draws — never a bare median.
Warming transmission — how strongly the projected air-temperature warming reaches the glacier surface. Full applies the CMIP6 warming directly; Damped attenuates it (on-glacier boundary-layer effects resist warming). Which holds is genuinely uncertain, so both are run — it shifts peak-water timing by about 9 years.
The model’s output at its native daily resolution — fixed-gauge runoff split into ice-melt, snow-melt, and rain, with the daily temperature and precipitation that drive it stacked underneath. Drag the window on the track below to slide a few months at a time across the whole 2000–2100 run. This is one central (posterior-median) trajectory; the 5–95% band is on the annual fan above.
Emissions scenario dominates peak-water timing — a 43-year span of median peak years from SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. Warming transmission moves it ~9 years; the thickness track barely a couple. The dual-track thickness disagreement — the single biggest structural uncertainty in the model, carried as two parallel ice-volume tracks the whole way through — turns out not to matter for when peak water lands. The bed governs post-peak longevity, not the peak year — a robustness win.
A global finding across all 56 runs — it doesn't change with the selectors above.