Dixon runoff to 2100
Scrub the scenario (top bar), warming transmission, thickness track, and climate model to see the ensemble runoff and when peak water lands. Uncertainty is the paired-posterior 5–95% band across draws — never a bare median.
Warming transmission — how strongly the projected air-temperature warming reaches the glacier surface. Full applies the CMIP6 warming directly; Damped attenuates it (on-glacier boundary-layer effects resist warming). Which holds is genuinely uncertain, so both are run. The two members differ in kind, not only in timing: under the lower pathways they move the ensemble-mean peak by 7–8 years; under SSP5-8.5 the damped member never turns over by 2095 (thesis, Section 5.5).
The glacier and its discharge, 2000–2100
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The model’s output at its native daily resolution — fixed-gauge runoff split into ice-melt, snow-melt, and rain, with the daily temperature and precipitation that drive it stacked underneath. Drag the window on the track below to slide a few months at a time across the whole 2000–2100 run. This is one central (posterior-median) trajectory; the 5–95% band is on the annual fan above.
Two axes set the timing. The emissions pathway moves the peak of the ensemble-mean curve by about two decades from SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. The transmission of warming decides whether there is a peak at all: the two members’ mean curves peak a few years apart under the lower pathways, and under SSP5-8.5 the damped member is nearly flat. The two thickness tracks give the same year under the lower pathways and two points on one plateau under SSP5-8.5: the bed governs how long the glacier lasts, not when its runoff peaks. For the volume of runoff the axes rank differently — the climate model leads, then the parameters and the transmission (thesis, Sections 5.6 and 6.3).
A global finding across all 56 runs — it doesn't change with the selectors above.
Provenance & caveats
5,600 coupled century runs — 2 thickness tracks × 2 warming-transmission members × 14 GCM–scenario combos × 100 paired posterior draws; one of the 56 configs is shown at a time. Peak water is the year of the maximum of the 11-year running mean of the ensemble-mean fixed-gauge runoff (Huss & Hock 2018), reported with the plateau (years within 2% of the maximum) and the share of runs that never turn over; the distribution of the individual runs’ peak years is the secondary reading. No refreezing, firn, or frontal ablation; the Δh geometry is validated on the 2000–2025 outlines and extrapolated to 2100.