Validation
How the model was tested
Calibration fits; validation tests. These are checks against evidence the model was not tuned to — an independent glacier, a satellite melt record, a held-out decade, and the geometry it must reproduce from observed thinning alone. Both the passes and the one documented failure are shown.
The ledger · six checks
Δh outline hindcast · geometry from observed thinning
Geodetic anchor residual · the documented residual
Stake fit · observed vs model
Snowline fit · observed vs model
Wolverine Tier-1 · regional coherence
SAR seasonal phenology · supporting check
Held-out 2000s · the failure we predicted